The CPI has been increasing faster since the 70s

tags
Consumer Price Index

I mean this is quite obvious:

2022-01-16_14-23-21_fredgraph.png.png

TODO Compute rolling average CPI growth

TODO Review of the common explanation

TODO Lire le papier de François Geerolf

This paper proposes another interpretation of the breaking of the Phillips curve in the 1970s: Nixon left the Gold standard, which ended the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. Therefore, the U.S. economy moved from having a fixed exchange rate with a strong price Phillips curve (which was also a real exchange rate Phillips curve), to a flexible exchange rate where the correlation would now be between nominal exchange rate and unemployment, instead of between price inflation and unemployment. In that interpretation, the breaking of the Phillips curve should not have been interpreted as a triumph of rational expectations economics, or as a problem for Keynesian economics, but simply as a consequence of a different exchange rate regime.

Links to this note